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Comprehensive analysis of current refinery capacity, operational performance, and expansion opportunities for businesses seeking to understand market dynamics and trading potential.
Lagos, Nigeria • Largest Single-Train Refinery in the World
650,000 bbl/day
Expandable to 1.4 million bbl/day
60-65% Capacity
390,000 - 422,500 bbl/day (faulted operation)
Expansion will add +300k bbl/d gasoline, +150k bbl/d diesel, +140k bbl/d jet fuel to regional markets
Comparative production output across baseline, faulted, and expanded capacity scenarios
650,000
bbl/day nameplate
60-65%
390k - 422.5k bbl/day
1.4M
bbl/day (Kpler adjusted)
| Product |
Baseline (650k bbl/d) |
60% Capacity (390k bbl/d) |
65% Capacity (422.5k bbl/d) |
Expanded (1.4M bbl/d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPG |
19,500 bbl/d 1,736 t/d |
11,700 bbl/d 1,042 t/d |
12,675 bbl/d 1,128 t/d |
30,034 bbl/d 2,668 t/d |
| Naphtha |
52,000 bbl/d 5,952 t/d |
31,200 bbl/d 3,571 t/d |
52,000 bbl/d 3,899 t/d |
80,094 bbl/d 9,184 t/d |
| Gasoline |
156,000 bbl/d 18,466 t/d |
93,600 bbl/d 11,080 t/d |
159,300 bbl/d 12,003 t/d |
456,000 bbl/d 53,940 t/d |
| Jet / Kerosene |
45,500 bbl/d 5,814 t/d |
27,300 bbl/d 3,488 t/d |
29,625 bbl/d 3,789 t/d |
185,500 bbl/d 23,705 t/d |
| Diesel / Gas Oil |
149,500 bbl/d 20,066 t/d |
89,700 bbl/d 12,040 t/d |
97,175 bbl/d 13,043 t/d |
299,500 bbl/d 40,194 t/d |
| VGO |
39,000 bbl/d 5,464 t/d |
23,400 bbl/d 3,279 t/d |
25,350 bbl/d 3,557 t/d |
60,071 bbl/d 8,428 t/d |
| Fuel Oil |
39,000 bbl/d 5,955 t/d |
23,400 bbl/d 3,573 t/d |
25,350 bbl/d 3,871 t/d |
60,071 bbl/d 9,171 t/d |
| Bitumen / Heavy |
65,000 bbl/d 10,442 t/d |
39,000 bbl/d 6,265 t/d |
41,125 bbl/d 6,784 t/d |
100,118 bbl/d 16,019 t/d |
| Lubes & Other |
84,500 bbl/d 12,090 t/d |
50,700 bbl/d 7,254 t/d |
54,925 bbl/d 7,858 t/d |
130,611 bbl/d 18,618 t/d |
| TOTAL |
650,000 bbl/d ~86,031 t/d |
390,000 bbl/d ~51,619 t/d |
422,500 bbl/d ~55,921 t/d |
1,400,000 bbl/d ~181,928 t/d |
Access the full Dangote Product Scenarios spreadsheet with detailed breakdowns across all scenarios, including low/mid/high diesel density calculations, product valuations, and market impact assessments.
Opens in Google Sheets • View-only access • Based on publicly available research data
Understanding the strategic implications of Dangote's expansion on regional and global petroleum markets
Additional market volumes when Dangote scales from 650k to 1.4M bbl/d
bbl/day additional gasoline supply to market (final: 456k bbl/d)
bbl/day additional diesel supply to market (final: 299.5k bbl/d)
bbl/day additional jet fuel supply to market (final: 185.5k bbl/d)
Insight: These incremental volumes represent the largest single-train refinery expansion in global markets, creating significant export and trading opportunities.
Capacity constraints limiting market impact until repairs complete
bbl/day throughput (51,619 t/d total output)
bbl/day throughput (55,921 t/d total output)
Current Status: Market impact is currently muted at 60-65% capacity. Early positioning ahead of fault repair and expansion offers strategic advantage.
At 1.4M bbl/d, Dangote will create large, predictable export streams requiring strategic planning.
Large incremental volumes will influence regional price dynamics significantly.
Precise specifications critical for shipping contracts and valuation.
Early movers can secure favorable terms ahead of full capacity operations.
Real-time spot market valuation of diesel/gas oil output across operational scenarios, based on physical cargo pricing rather than futures contracts
Physical cargo pricing for actual refinery cash-flow capacity — spot market assessments reflect real transaction values, not paper contracts.
Spot Diesel/LSGO Price
$683
per metric tonne
Export Premium
+$20
per metric tonne
Effective Realised Price
$703
per metric tonne
Why Spot vs Futures? Refineries sell physical barrels, not paper contracts. Spot prices (Platts, Argus) reflect actual cargo trade values used for invoicing, while ICE futures are financial hedging instruments. For day-to-day value capacity analysis, spot is the correct reference.
Data Source & Limitations: This analysis is based on publicly available research data including industry reports, market assessments, and publicly disclosed refinery specifications. This is not insider information and does not constitute privileged or confidential data.
Indicative Nature: All valuations shown are indicative estimates for illustrative and analytical purposes. Actual refinery performance, product yields, and market realizations may vary significantly based on crude slate, operational efficiency, maintenance schedules, and market conditions.
Subject to Change: Spot market prices fluctuate daily. The pricing used (dated January 23, 2025) represents a point-in-time snapshot. Do not rely on these figures for investment decisions without current market data and professional advice.
Reference Only: This report provides a good reference framework for understanding refinery economics and market scale but should be supplemented with real-time data, proprietary analysis, and professional due diligence for commercial decisions.
Diesel Output (Mid Density)
12,040 MT/day
Daily Diesel Revenue
$8.46M
$8,464,120 per day
Monthly
~$254M
Annual
~$3.09B
Diesel Output (Mid Density)
13,043 MT/day
Daily Diesel Revenue
$9.17M
$9,169,229 per day
Monthly
~$275M
Annual
~$3.35B
Diesel Output (Mid Density)
20,066 MT/day
Daily Diesel Revenue
$14.11M
$14,106,398 per day
Monthly
~$423M
Annual
~$5.15B
Diesel Output (Mid Density)
40,194 MT/day
+20,128 MT/day vs baseline
Daily Diesel Revenue
$28.26M
$28,256,382 per day
Monthly
~$848M
Annual
~$10.3B
Impact of ±$10/MT spot price movement on daily diesel revenue across all scenarios
| Scenario | MT/day |
@ $693/MT (+$10) |
@ $703/MT (Current) |
@ $713/MT (+$10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% Capacity | 12,040 | $8.34M | $8.46M | $8.58M |
| 65% Capacity | 13,043 | $9.04M | $9.17M | $9.30M |
| 650k Baseline | 20,066 | $13.91M | $14.11M | $14.31M |
| 1.4M Expanded | 40,194 | $27.85M | $28.26M | $28.66M |
Every $10/MT movement in spot diesel price changes daily value by:
At 1.4M capacity, this sensitivity scales to:
This underscores why spot index selection, contract timing, and hedging strategies are critical at Dangote scale.
At 60-65% capacity, market impact is muted (~$8.5-9.2M/day diesel revenue). Early positioning now — before fault repair restores baseline — offers strategic advantage and favorable contract terms.
Restoring to 650k bbl/d increases diesel revenue to $14.1M/day (~$423M/month). Securing offtake agreements ahead of this restoration locks in volume commitments before competition intensifies.
At full expansion, diesel alone generates $28.3M/day (~$10.3B/year). This represents the largest single-train refinery revenue stream globally — creating unprecedented regional export opportunities.
Note: Diesel figures shown are mid-density (SG 0.845). This analysis excludes gasoline, jet fuel, LPG, and other products — total refinery revenue capacity is materially higher.
Complete profitability breakdown for 20,000 MT diesel distribution across West Africa — featuring wholesale & pump pricing for Lome, Ghana, Liberia, Gambia, and Chad with up to 108% ROI potential.
Combined valuation including diesel, gasoline (PMS), and jet fuel/kerosene — the three highest-value transportation fuel products
Spot Price (NYMEX RBOB equiv.)
$745
per metric tonne
Export Premium
+$25/MT
Effective Price
$770/MT
Spot Price (ULSD equiv.)
$683
per metric tonne
Export Premium
+$20/MT
Effective Price
$703/MT
Spot Price (Jet A1 equiv.)
$725
per metric tonne
Export Premium
+$22/MT
Effective Price
$747/MT
Transportation fuels only — excludes LPG, naphtha, VGO, fuel oil, bitumen, and lubes
| Scenario |
Gasoline @ $770/MT |
Diesel @ $703/MT |
Jet Fuel @ $747/MT |
TOTAL per Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
60% Capacity
390,000 bbl/d
|
11,080 MT/d
$8.53M
|
12,040 MT/d
$8.46M
|
3,488 MT/d
$2.61M
|
$19.60M
~$588M/month
|
|
65% Capacity
422,500 bbl/d
|
12,003 MT/d
$9.24M
|
13,043 MT/d
$9.17M
|
3,789 MT/d
$2.83M
|
$21.24M
~$637M/month
|
|
650k Baseline
650,000 bbl/d
|
18,466 MT/d
$14.22M
|
20,066 MT/d
$14.11M
|
5,814 MT/d
$4.34M
|
$32.67M
~$980M/month
|
|
1.4M Expanded
1,400,000 bbl/d
|
53,940 MT/d
$41.53M
|
40,194 MT/d
$28.26M
|
23,705 MT/d
$17.71M
|
$87.50M
~$2.63B/month
~$31.9B/year
|
Scaling from 650k to 1.4M bbl/d increases daily transportation fuel revenue by:
+$54.83M/day
That's an additional $1.64B/month or $20B/year from just these three products.
Total refinery revenue is materially higher — this analysis excludes:
60% Capacity
$7.15B
per year
65% Capacity
$7.75B
per year
650k Baseline
$11.92B
per year
1.4M Expanded
$31.9B
per year
At full 1.4M bbl/d expansion, these three products alone generate nearly $32 billion annually — making Dangote one of the world's most valuable single-site refineries.
Professional-grade analytics tools for West Africa fuel market investment decisions. Each tool requires subscription access.
16-market comparison with granular ROI analysis. Side-by-side comparison of all West African diesel markets with landed costs, margin ranges, and tier classifications.
PMS-specific market projections with demand forecasting, affordability analysis, and elasticity metrics for multi-product portfolio planning.
Complete diesel investment solution: in-depth market research combined with 5 risk-profitability models. Includes 20,000 MT distribution planning across 16 markets with strategic 4K MT per-country allocation.
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