Comprehensive profitability analysis for 20,000 MT LSGO (FOB Dangote) distribution across West African markets: Lome, Ghana, Liberia, Gambia & Chad
📊 New: January 2026 Market Update Available
Strategic context for navigating the post-Dangote, oversupplied market
Converting 20,000 Metric Tonnes of LSGO to litres across three density tiers (0.83 - 0.86 kg/L)
Lighter fuel specification
Standard market specification
Heavier fuel specification
Based on 20,000 MT shipment with density variance
Complete cost analysis for 20,000 MT LSGO procurement from Dangote Refinery
Wire Transfer / Direct Deposit
Letter of Credit (180 Days Tenor)
Direct communication from Dangote Refinery confirms FOB pricing basis. Understanding FOB vs CIF is critical for accurate cost modeling.
Seller's responsibility ends when goods are loaded onto the vessel at the origin port (Dangote SPM, Lekki).
Buyer pays: Shipping, insurance, and freight to destination.
Seller's responsibility ends when goods arrive at the destination port. Seller arranges and pays for shipping.
Seller pays: Cost, insurance, and freight to destination.
| Cost Component | Per MT | Per Litre | Total (20kt) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE LSGO Futures (Base) | ~$680 | ~$0.575 | $13,600,000 | Jan 2026 indicative |
| Dangote Premium | +$25 | +$0.021 | $500,000 | Per refinery quote |
| FOB Dangote SPM | ~$705 | ~$0.596 | $14,100,000 | Product cost at loading |
| Freight (to W. Africa) | +$30 | +$0.025 | $600,000 | MR Tanker market rate |
| Operational & Regulatory | +$82.52 | +$0.070 | $1,650,400 | Nigeria Port dues & fees |
| Brokerage Commission | +$5 | +$0.004 | $100,000 | Tier 3 rate |
| Performance Bond (6%) | +$43.83 | +$0.037 | $876,554 | Refundable (Dangote 5% + Bolyx 1%) |
| TOTAL TRANSACTION COST (Option A) | ~$866.35 | ~$0.732 | $17,326,954 | Aligned with Transaction Cost section |
Our commitment to accuracy means continuously updating projections as new market data emerges. Here's how January 2026 actual prices compare to our initial conservative estimates.
| Market |
Our Cost
FOB + Costs
|
Model Est.
Pump Price
|
Verified
Actual Pump
|
Actual Margin | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
🇹🇬
Lomé, Togo
Regulated Market
Jan 19, 2026
|
$0.732/L | $1.25/L |
$1.23/L
695 XOF
|
$0.498/L | Verified |
|
🇬🇭
Ghana
Bi-Weekly Pricing Window
Jan 16, 2026
|
$0.732/L | $1.35/L |
$1.10/L
GH₵11.21 (GOIL)
Up to GH₵11.96 private
|
$0.368/L | Below Model |
|
🇱🇷
Liberia
USD-Dollarized Market
Jan 19, 2026
|
$0.732/L | $1.40/L |
$0.92/L
$3.49/gallon
~LRD 170.48
|
$0.188/L | Monitor |
|
🇬🇲
Gambia
Monthly Government Review
Jan 1, 2026
|
$0.732/L | $1.21/L |
$1.21/L
D84.60
|
$0.478/L | Verified |
|
🇹🇩
Chad
Djarmaya Refinery Regulated
|
$0.732/L | $0.90/L |
$0.90/L
548 XAF (N'Djamena)
$1.07-$1.32/L Provincial
|
$0.168/L
$0.34-$0.59/L Provincial
|
Regulated |
Price at 695 XOF ($1.23) has remained extremely stable with 0% change since early 2025. Most predictable cost center for logistics planning.
Cedi strengthened ~8% in Jan 2026, dropping diesel from GH₵12.45 to GH₵11.21 (down 24% YoY). Watch Feb 1st pricing window for potential further cuts.
Prices set in USD at $3.49/gallon ($0.92/L)—the lowest per-litre of the three. Protected from local inflation but exposed to global oil. Down from $3.57 in June 2025.
Label selling prices as "CIF Wholesale" rather than "Retail" — retail pump prices include local taxes and distributor margins.
Lenders prefer 0.845 kg/L mid-point as "Base Case" — the standard for ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil Futures.
Adding a "Stress Case" showing impact of 5-10% price drop strengthens model bankability for lender review.
Bank-ready analysis showing profit resilience under adverse price scenarios. Based on verified Togo price of $1.23/L (695 XOF, Jan 19, 2026).
| Scenario | Price/L | Revenue | Gross Profit | ROI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Base Case (Actual Retail)
|
$1.23 | $29,113,809 | $11,786,855 | 68.0% | |
|
5% Price Drop
|
$1.17 | $27,693,900 | $10,366,946 | 59.8% | |
|
10% Price Drop (Stress)
|
$1.11 | $26,274,300 | $8,947,346 | 51.6% | |
|
15% Price Drop (Severe)
|
$1.05 | $24,853,500 | $7,526,546 | 43.4% | |
|
Break-Even Point
|
$0.732 | $17,326,954 | $0 | 0% |
LSGO Diesel 50ppm prices across West African markets — Verified January 2026 data showing downward trend driven by currency strengthening and favorable global oil conditions
|
Market / Country
|
CIF Wholesale
|
Est. Pump Price
|
Wholesale Margin
|
Pump Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TG
Lome, Togo
Regulated Market
✓ Jan 19, 2026 Verified
|
$1.05 /L |
$1.23
/L
695 XOF
|
$0.318/L | $0.498/L |
|
GH
Ghana
Bi-Weekly Pricing Window
⚠ Jan 16, 2026 — Down 24% YoY
|
$1.10 /L |
$1.10
/L
GH₵11.21 GOIL
|
$0.368/L | $0.368/L |
|
LR
Liberia
USD-Dollarized Market
⚠ Jan 19, 2026 — $3.49/gal
|
$1.15 /L |
$0.92
/L
$3.49/gallon
|
$0.418/L | $0.188/L |
|
GM
Gambia
Coastal Access Market
✓ Jan 2026 Verified
|
$1.05 /L |
$1.21
/L
D84.60
|
$0.318/L | $0.478/L |
|
TD
Chad
Landlocked Market
⚠ Regulated Prices
|
$0.92 /L |
$0.90
/L
548 XAF (Capital)
$1.07-$1.32/L Provincial
|
$0.188/L |
$0.168/L
$0.34-$0.59/L Provincial
|
Comprehensive ROI analysis based on 23.67M litres (mid-density baseline) using Option A procurement cost
Highest Verified ROI
Complete overview of profit potential across all 5 West African markets
| Market | Wholesale Profit | Wholesale ROI | Pump Profit | Pump ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇹🇬 Lome, Togo ✓ Verified | $7,526,546 | 43.4% | $11,786,855 | 68.0% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana ⚠ Below Model | $8,710,046 | 50.3% |
$14,627,546
$8.7M Actual
|
84.4%
50.3% Actual
|
| 🇱🇷 Liberia ⚠ Monitor | $9,893,546 | 57.1% |
$15,811,046
$4.4M Actual
|
91.3%
25.7% Actual
|
| 🇬🇲 Gambia ✓ Verified | $7,526,546 | 43.4% | $11,313,746 | 65.3% |
| 🇹🇩 Chad ⚠ Regulated | $4,449,446 | 25.7% |
$3,976,346
$9.9M Provincial
|
23.0%
57.1% Provincial
|
| AVERAGE (Based on Actual Prices) | $7,621,226 | 44.0% | $8,097,226 | 46.7% |
All pricing data is derived from publicly available market sources including ICE Futures, industry publications, and verified market surveys as of January 2026. Freight rates based on current MR tanker market rates ($25-40/MT for West Africa routes). Regional wholesale and retail prices are estimates subject to local market conditions, supplier terms, and seasonal variations.
This analysis contains forward-looking projections based on current market conditions. Commodity prices, freight rates, currency exchange rates, and regulatory environments are inherently volatile. Actual results may differ materially from projections. All figures should be independently verified with current market data before making investment or financing decisions.
This analysis is based solely on publicly available research data and does not contain or rely upon any insider information. All calculations use industry-standard conversion factors (0.845 kg/L base density), ICE LSGO Futures benchmarks, and published MR tanker market rates conforming to current petroleum trading standards.
This document serves as an indicative feasibility reference and preliminary market assessment only. It is intended to provide a framework for understanding potential opportunities and should not be construed as financial, investment, or legal advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
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Bornu Crescent, Apapa, Lagos State, Nigeria
Bolanle L. Balogun
Founder — Bolyx Multi Investment Ltd
UK: +447405276720 | Nigeria: +2349071960406 | [email protected]
Contact our trading desk to discuss LSGO procurement, regional distribution partnerships, and customized transaction structures.