Comprehensive analysis of PMS, Diesel & Jet Fuel markets across 16 West African countries — leveraging the Dangote Refinery shift with MECE frameworks, 80/20 prioritization, and critical risk assessment.
16
Countries Covered
470M+
Regional Population
3
Product Categories
12-18%
Projected ROI
Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive categorization for building a diversified fuel portfolio in West Africa.
The production hub and largest consumer — 70% of regional demand
Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, Togo, Benin — High maritime connectivity
Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger — High-margin but high-risk/logistics heavy
Retail-driven, high volume, elastic to population growth
Industrial-driven, inelastic, core to manufacturing and power backup
Future diversification — aviation and household energy
Coastal vessel transfers from Lekki to regional ports (Tema, Cotonou, Lomé, Abidjan)
Cross-border haulage for landlocked nations via strategic corridors
Tank farms in strategic regional hubs for buffer capacity
Managing Naira vs. CFA Franc vs. GHS volatility
AfCFTA tariffs and domestic subsidies affecting pricing
ECOWAS 2025 cleaner fuels directive affecting interoperability
Focus your energy on these critical variables to maximize portfolio returns.
Controls the floor price for PMS and diesel regionally. At ~650k bpd (with expansion plans) it displaces imports and creates export flows.
Largest market in West Africa (~242M) and an anchor price/demand reference for the entire region.
Tariff and regulatory divergence directly impacts logistics costs and cross-border pricing dynamics.
Predictable fuel pricing and trade flows hinge on currency stability — CFA peg provides pricing anchor.
Demand is concentrated in Nigeria and a few coastal economies, making them dominant price signals.
Refining capacity remains scarce, so supply shocks shift regional balances dramatically.
Tariff and currency differences raise or lower transport arbitrage opportunities.
While PMS has more "noise" (subsidies, political sensitivity), Diesel drives industrial growth and is priced more transparently.
Benin, Togo, and Ghana are logistics gateways to the Sahel. Capture the supply chain here to access landlocked market margins.
80% of logistics cost savings come from sea freight efficiency, not trucking. Focus on large-volume vessel charters.
A critical skeptic's assessment of portfolio assumptions, data needs, and hidden risks.
Correlation: Population strongly correlates with demand — Nigeria (~242M), Ghana (~36M), Côte d'Ivoire (~33M) consume the most.
However: Population alone doesn't fully predict consumption — industrialization, vehicle ownership, and economic activity also matter.
Missing Data: Vehicle fleet data and GDP per capita, which strongly predict refined product demand.
Red Team Critique: Assuming PMS and diesel demand directly from price data is incorrect. Price and consumption are related but not interchangeable. High prices may indicate scarcity (high demand) or regulatory distortion (subsidies removed).
Transport costs vary by road vs. rail vs. coastal shipping — no single model fits all.
Fuel export requires port access, storage, and inland transport infrastructure.
Critical Risk: Assuming a single logistics cost model for all countries.
Assuming Dangote is the only player. Cabinda (Angola) and Sentuo (Ghana) refineries are active competitors that could undercut prices.
High population ≠ high consumption. Effective demand is limited by purchasing power. If prices rise above $1.30/L, demand in low-income segments collapses.
CFA Franc (pegged to Euro) creates a "price floor" that Nigeria's Naira cannot easily penetrate without heavy discounting.
West African countries by population and top fuel consumption drivers (January 2026 estimates).
| Country | Population (2026 Est.) | Top Consumer | Why? |
|---|---|---|---|
|
🇳🇬
Nigeria
|
242.4 Million |
PMS
Diesel
|
Sheer volume; 70% of regional demand |
|
🇬🇭
Ghana
|
35.7 Million | Diesel | High industrial/mining use |
|
🇨🇮
Côte d'Ivoire
|
33.5 Million | Diesel | Regional transport/logistics hub |
|
🇳🇪
Niger
Landlocked
|
~28 Million | PMS | AES bloc, high-margin opportunity |
|
🇲🇱
Mali
Landlocked
|
~26 Million | Diesel | Mining, power generation |
|
🇧🇫
Burkina Faso
Landlocked
|
~24 Million | Diesel | Gold mining operations |
|
🇸🇳
Senegal
|
19.4 Million | PMS | Urbanized transport in Dakar |
|
🇬🇳
Guinea
|
~15 Million | Diesel | Bauxite mining |
|
🇧🇯
Benin
|
~14 Million | PMS | Transit hub to Sahel |
|
🇹🇬
Togo
|
~9 Million |
PMS
Diesel
|
Deepest port in region (Lomé) |
Total Regional Population: ~470M+ across West Africa (excluding dependencies)
Nigeria leads (70%), followed by Senegal, Benin — driven by urban transport and retail demand
Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso — driven by mining, industrial, and power generation
Concentrated in hub airports — Lagos, Accra, Abidjan, Dakar serve as regional aviation centers
Logistics costs from the Dangote Refinery (Lekki) based on Coastal Freight (CF) and Inland Haulage (IH).
Coastal Vessel — Very high margin potential
Maritime — Strong margin
Maritime — Moderate margin
Maritime to Abidjan + 1,000km Trucking
Via Lomé/Cotonou corridor
Via Benin corridor — Security considerations
Nigeria (Post-Dangote) and Ghana (Terminal networks)
Togo (Lomé) — Deepest port in the region, allowing for larger vessels and faster turnaround
Benin and Togo serve as primary transit corridors to landlocked Sahel markets
Comparing Dangote Refinery pricing vs. local market prices across 16 West African countries for a 20,000 Metric Tonne diesel cargo.
Cargo Size
20,000 MT
Volume (@ 0.845 kg/L)
~23.67M L
FOB Dangote Price
$703/MT
Base Cost per Litre
$0.593/L
Note: FOB price based on ICE LSGO ($683/MT) + Dangote export premium ($20/MT) = $703/MT. Density: 0.845 kg/L (ICE Standard). All prices in USD as of January 2026.
Landed Cost/L = FOB Cost/L ($0.593) + Freight/L + Port Charges/L + Inland Transport/L
Gross Margin/L = Local Market Price/L − Landed Cost/L
Total Cargo Margin = Gross Margin/L × 23,670,000 L
ROI = (Total Cargo Margin ÷ Total Investment) × 100
High volume, lowest logistics cost, competitive pricing
| Country | Freight/L | Landed Cost/L | Local Price/L | Margin/L | Total Margin (20K MT) | Est. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
🇳🇬
Nigeria
|
$0.01 | $0.603 | $0.95–1.10 | $0.35–0.50 | $8.3M–$11.8M | 55–78% |
|
🇬🇭
Ghana (Tema)
|
$0.05 | $0.643 | $1.05–1.15 | $0.41–0.51 | $9.7M–$12.1M | 63–79% |
|
🇹🇬
Togo (Lomé)
|
$0.025 | $0.618 | $1.05–1.23 | $0.43–0.61 | $10.2M–$14.4M | 66–94% |
|
🇧🇯
Benin (Cotonou)
|
$0.02 | $0.613 | $1.00–1.18 | $0.39–0.57 | $9.2M–$13.5M | 60–88% |
|
🇨🇮
Côte d'Ivoire (Abidjan)
|
$0.07 | $0.663 | $1.08–1.20 | $0.42–0.54 | $9.9M–$12.8M | 63–81% |
|
🇸🇳
Senegal (Dakar)
|
$0.09 | $0.683 | $1.12–1.25 | $0.44–0.57 | $10.4M–$13.5M | 66–85% |
Moderate freight, gateway to inland markets, strategic positioning
| Country | Freight/L | Landed Cost/L | Local Price/L | Margin/L | Total Margin (20K MT) | Est. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
🇱🇷
Liberia (Monrovia)
|
$0.10 | $0.693 | $0.92–1.15 | $0.23–0.46 | $5.4M–$10.9M | 35–71% |
|
🇬🇳
Guinea (Conakry)
|
$0.11 | $0.703 | $1.05–1.20 | $0.35–0.50 | $8.3M–$11.8M | 53–75% |
|
🇸🇱
Sierra Leone (Freetown)
|
$0.12 | $0.713 | $1.08–1.22 | $0.37–0.51 | $8.8M–$12.1M | 55–76% |
|
🇬🇲
Gambia (Banjul)
|
$0.10 | $0.693 | $1.05–1.21 | $0.36–0.52 | $8.5M–$12.3M | 55–80% |
|
🇬🇼
Guinea-Bissau (Bissau)
|
$0.11 | $0.703 | $1.10–1.28 | $0.40–0.58 | $9.5M–$13.7M | 60–87% |
|
🇲🇷
Mauritania (Nouakchott)
|
$0.13 | $0.723 | $1.15–1.30 | $0.43–0.58 | $10.2M–$13.7M | 64–86% |
|
🇨🇻
Cape Verde (Praia)
|
$0.14 | $0.733 | $1.25–1.40 | $0.52–0.67 | $12.3M–$15.9M | 77–99% |
Higher logistics cost but premium pricing — requires maritime + inland trucking
| Country | Total Logistics/L | Landed Cost/L | Local Price/L | Margin/L | Total Margin (20K MT) | Est. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
🇲🇱
Mali (Bamako)
via Abidjan + 1,000km trucking |
$0.21 | $0.803 | $1.20–1.40 | $0.40–0.60 | $9.5M–$14.2M | 50–74% |
|
🇧🇫
Burkina Faso (Ouagadougou)
via Lomé/Cotonou corridor |
$0.18 | $0.773 | $1.15–1.35 | $0.38–0.58 | $9.0M–$13.7M | 49–72% |
|
🇳🇪
Niger (Niamey)
via Benin corridor — security sensitive |
$0.24 | $0.833 | $1.25–1.45 | $0.42–0.62 | $9.9M–$14.7M | 50–74% |
|
🇹🇩
Chad (N'Djamena)
★ Highest Margin Opportunity |
$0.28 | $0.873 | $1.30–1.55 | $0.43–0.68 | $10.2M–$16.1M | 49–78% |
Consolidated view of expected returns for a 20,000 MT diesel cargo across all West African markets.
| Country | Tier | Landed Cost/L | Local Price Range | ROI Range | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | T1 | $0.603 | $0.95–1.10 | 55–78% | Low |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | T1 | $0.643 | $1.05–1.15 | 63–79% | Low |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | T1 | $0.618 | $1.05–1.23 | 66–94% | Low |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | T1 | $0.613 | $1.00–1.18 | 60–88% | Low |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | T1 | $0.663 | $1.08–1.20 | 63–81% | Low |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | T1 | $0.683 | $1.12–1.25 | 66–85% | Low |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | T2 | $0.693 | $0.92–1.15 | 35–71% | Med |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | T2 | $0.703 | $1.05–1.20 | 53–75% | Med |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | T2 | $0.713 | $1.08–1.22 | 55–76% | Med |
| 🇬🇲 Gambia | T2 | $0.693 | $1.05–1.21 | 55–80% | Low |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | T2 | $0.703 | $1.10–1.28 | 60–87% | Med |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | T2 | $0.723 | $1.15–1.30 | 64–86% | Med |
| 🇨🇻 Cape Verde | T2 | $0.733 | $1.25–1.40 | 77–99% | Low |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | T3 | $0.803 | $1.20–1.40 | 50–74% | High |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | T3 | $0.773 | $1.15–1.35 | 49–72% | High |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | T3 | $0.833 | $1.25–1.45 | 50–74% | High |
| 🇹🇩 Chad ★ | T3 | $0.873 | $1.30–1.55 | 49–78% | High |
Togo (Lomé)
66–94% ROI with lowest freight cost ($0.025/L) and premium pricing
Cape Verde
77–99% ROI due to island premium and limited competition
Chad
49–78% ROI with highest absolute margins ($0.43–0.68/L)
Why sourcing from Dangote Refinery creates structural advantage over local/import alternatives.
Regional Production Advantage
Average ROI: 55–85% across 16 countries
Long-Haul Import Alternative
Competitive only during coastal glut periods
Base Product Cost
$14.06M
20,000 MT × $703/MT
Performance Bonds
$0.88M
Refundable (6%)
Operational Costs
$2.35M
Port, freight, brokerage
Total Investment
~$17.3M
All-in cost basis
Expected Return (Coastal)
$8M–$14M
55–85% ROI
Expected Return (Transit)
$8M–$13M
50–80% ROI
Expected Return (Landlocked)
$9M–$16M
49–78% ROI
Comparing Dangote Refinery gantry pricing vs. local retail prices across 16 West African countries for a 20,000 Metric Tonne PMS cargo.
Cargo Size
20,000 MT
Density (PMS)
0.745 kg/L
Total Volume
~26.85M L
Dangote Gantry Price
₦750/L
(Range: ₦699–₦800)
USD Equivalent
~$0.52/L
@ ₦1,450/$1
Note: Dangote ex-refinery (gantry) price as of January 2026. PMS density: 0.745 kg/L (standard). Exchange rate: ₦1,450/USD (Q1 2026 proxy). Actual pricing may vary by delivery agreement and currency conditions.
Landed Cost/L = Gantry ($0.52) + Freight + Port + Inland
Gross Margin/L = Local Retail Price − Landed Cost
Total Margin = Margin/L × 26,850,000 L
ROI = (Total Margin ÷ Investment) × 100
Key Insight: PMS has ~13% higher volume per MT than diesel (0.745 vs 0.845 kg/L), yielding more litres per cargo.
Lowest logistics cost, high volume potential
| Country | Freight/L | Landed Cost/L | Local Retail/L | Margin/L | Total Margin (20K MT) | Est. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
🇳🇬
Nigeria
★ Domestic Market |
$0.01 | $0.53 | $0.54–0.60 | $0.01–0.07 | $0.3M–$1.9M | 2–12% |
|
🇹🇬
Togo (Lomé)
|
$0.025 | $0.545 | $1.04 | $0.50 | $13.4M | 85–92% |
|
🇧🇯
Benin (Cotonou)
|
$0.02 | $0.54 | $1.06 | $0.52 | $14.0M | 88–96% |
|
🇬🇭
Ghana (Tema)
|
$0.05 | $0.57 | $1.11 | $0.54 | $14.5M | 90–100% |
|
🇨🇮
Côte d'Ivoire (Abidjan)
|
$0.07 | $0.59 | $1.08–1.15 | $0.49–0.56 | $13.2M–$15.0M | 83–97% |
|
🇸🇳
Senegal (Dakar)
★ Highest Margin Coastal |
$0.09 | $0.61 | $1.88 | $1.27 | $34.1M | 215–230% |
Nigeria shows minimal margin ($0.01–0.07/L) because Dangote's gantry price ($0.52/L ≈ ₦750) is close to retail (~₦780–870 or $0.54–0.60). The value proposition in Nigeria is market share capture and supply reliability, not arbitrage. Export to neighboring CFA markets yields significantly higher returns.
Moderate freight, elevated local pricing, strong margins
| Country | Freight/L | Landed Cost/L | Local Retail/L | Margin/L | Total Margin (20K MT) | Est. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
🇨🇻
Cape Verde (Praia)
|
$0.14 | $0.66 | $1.22 | $0.56 | $15.0M | 95–105% |
|
🇬🇳
Guinea (Conakry)
|
$0.11 | $0.63 | $1.37 | $0.74 | $19.9M | 125–138% |
|
🇸🇱
Sierra Leone (Freetown)
★ High Margin T2 |
$0.12 | $0.64 | $1.50 | $0.86 | $23.1M | 145–160% |
|
🇱🇷
Liberia (Monrovia)
|
$0.10 | $0.62 | $1.15–1.30 | $0.53–0.68 | $14.2M–$18.3M | 90–118% |
|
🇬🇲
Gambia (Banjul)
|
$0.10 | $0.62 | $1.20–1.35 | $0.58–0.73 | $15.6M–$19.6M | 100–128% |
|
🇬🇼
Guinea-Bissau (Bissau)
|
$0.11 | $0.63 | $1.25–1.40 | $0.62–0.77 | $16.6M–$20.7M | 105–135% |
|
🇲🇷
Mauritania (Nouakchott)
|
$0.13 | $0.65 | $1.30–1.45 | $0.65–0.80 | $17.5M–$21.5M | 110–140% |
Higher logistics cost but exceptional margins from scarcity pricing
| Country | Total Logistics/L | Landed Cost/L | Local Retail/L | Margin/L | Total Margin (20K MT) | Est. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
🇲🇱
Mali (Bamako)
★ High Premium Market |
$0.21 | $0.73 | $1.37 | $0.64 | $17.2M | 108–120% |
|
🇧🇫
Burkina Faso (Ouagadougou)
via Lomé/Cotonou corridor |
$0.18 | $0.70 | $1.49 | $0.79 | $21.2M | 135–148% |
|
🇳🇪
Niger (Niamey)
Security corridor — via Benin |
$0.24 | $0.76 | $1.40–1.55 | $0.64–0.79 | $17.2M–$21.2M | 108–138% |
|
🇹🇩
Chad (N'Djamena)
★ Highest Logistics Challenge |
$0.28 | $0.80 | $1.50–1.70 | $0.70–0.90 | $18.8M–$24.2M | 118–155% |
Consolidated view of expected returns for a 20,000 MT PMS cargo from Dangote Refinery.
| Country | Tier | Landed Cost/L | Local Retail/L | Margin/L | ROI Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | T1 | $0.53 | $0.54–0.60 | $0.01–0.07 | 2–12% |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | T1 | $0.545 | $1.04 | $0.50 | 85–92% |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | T1 | $0.54 | $1.06 | $0.52 | 88–96% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | T1 | $0.57 | $1.11 | $0.54 | 90–100% |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | T1 | $0.59 | $1.08–1.15 | $0.49–0.56 | 83–97% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal ★ | T1 | $0.61 | $1.88 | $1.27 | 215–230% |
| 🇨🇻 Cape Verde | T2 | $0.66 | $1.22 | $0.56 | 95–105% |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | T2 | $0.63 | $1.37 | $0.74 | 125–138% |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone ★ | T2 | $0.64 | $1.50 | $0.86 | 145–160% |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | T2 | $0.62 | $1.15–1.30 | $0.53–0.68 | 90–118% |
| 🇬🇲 Gambia | T2 | $0.62 | $1.20–1.35 | $0.58–0.73 | 100–128% |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | T2 | $0.63 | $1.25–1.40 | $0.62–0.77 | 105–135% |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | T2 | $0.65 | $1.30–1.45 | $0.65–0.80 | 110–140% |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | T3 | $0.73 | $1.37 | $0.64 | 108–120% |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | T3 | $0.70 | $1.49 | $0.79 | 135–148% |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | T3 | $0.76 | $1.40–1.55 | $0.64–0.79 | 108–138% |
| 🇹🇩 Chad ★ | T3 | $0.80 | $1.50–1.70 | $0.70–0.90 | 118–155% |
Senegal (Dakar)
215–230% ROI — $1.27/L margin due to highest retail price ($1.88/L) in region
Sierra Leone
145–160% ROI — $0.86/L margin, strong volume potential
Chad
118–155% ROI — Highest absolute margin potential despite logistics
Side-by-side comparison of 20,000 MT cargo economics for both fuel products.
| Metric |
PMS (Petrol)
|
Diesel (AGO)
|
|---|---|---|
| Cargo Size | 20,000 MT | 20,000 MT |
| Density | 0.745 kg/L | 0.845 kg/L |
| Total Volume | ~26.85 Million L | ~23.67 Million L |
| Dangote Price | ₦750/L (~$0.52) | $703/MT (~$0.593/L) |
| Base Product Cost | ~$13.96M | ~$14.06M |
| Total Investment | $15.4M–$17.2M | $15.3M–$17.3M |
| Nigeria Margin | $0.01–0.07/L (2–12%) | $0.35–0.50/L (55–78%) |
| Avg Export ROI (Coastal) | 85–100% | 60–90% |
| Best Market | Senegal (215–230%) | Cape Verde (77–99%) |
| Demand Driver | Retail / Transport | Industrial / Power Gen |
| Price Sensitivity | High (political) | Lower (B2B) |
Optimal mix: 60% Diesel + 40% PMS — Diesel provides stable B2B revenue stream, while PMS captures high-margin export opportunities in markets like Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Burkina Faso.
Strategic framework for building a diversified West African fuel portfolio with optimal risk-reward balance.
Population & GDP — biggest markets yield largest volume consumption
Regional self-sufficiency reduces import risk and price volatility
Predict price stability and cross-border arbitrage opportunities
Ports, storage, inland transport — critical for execution
Fuel standards harmonization affects interoperability
Buy in Naira (Lekki), sell in CFA Francs to hedge devaluation
B2B/Industrial — Transparent pricing, inelastic demand
Retail — Volume play, population-driven demand
Owning storage in Cotonou is more valuable than owning stations in Nigeria — it acts as a "buffer" for the entire Sahel, capturing margin from multiple landlocked markets through a single strategic asset.
Anchor markets with highest volume
Gateway to landlocked markets
Landlocked with premium pricing
Building a diversified fuel portfolio in West Africa in 2026 is structurally viable — but success requires moving beyond simple population-based demand assumptions to logistics-centric execution.
Prioritize Diesel (60%)
Industrial demand is more predictable
Own Transit Storage
Cotonou/Lomé as Sahel buffer
Maritime-First
80% of savings in sea freight
This document is a strategic market analysis based on publicly available data as of January 2026. Population estimates, pricing data, and logistics costs are indicative and subject to change. Actual refined product demand varies by country based on GDP, industrialization, and vehicle ownership rates not fully captured in this analysis. All investment decisions should be independently verified. Commodity prices, freight rates, FX, and regulations are volatile and may affect projected returns.