West Africa Fuel Portfolio Model

INTEGRATED OPERATING COCKPIT

Capital Allocation Engine | Real-Time Risk Governor | Stress-Testing Simulator

Live Capital Allocation VaR & Drawdown Limits What-If Scenarios Logistics Intelligence

Last Refresh

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Total Capital

$86.5M

100,000 MT Deployed

Weighted ROI

67.4%

+2.3% vs baseline

VaR (95%)

$4.2M

Within Limits

Max Drawdown

8.2%

Below 20% Limit

Product Allocation

Diesel (AGO) 85%

$73.5M | 85,000 MT ✓ Core Position

PMS (Petrol) 15%

$13.0M | 15,000 MT ✓ Below 25% Cap

PMS Strategy: Demand-adjusted allocation. Auto-caps at 25% based on affordability + elasticity metrics.

Position Cap Monitor

PMS Allocation

Max: 25% | Current: 15%

OK

Single Country

Max: 30% | Highest: 22%

OK

T3 Exposure

Max: 20% | Current: 18%

OK

Capital Allocation by Country

Demand-Adjusted ROI by Country

West Africa ROI Heatmap

🇳🇬

Nigeria

67%

T1 | $17.3M

🇬🇭

Ghana

71%

T1 | $17.3M

🇹🇬

Togo

80%

T1 | $17.3M

🇧🇯

Benin

74%

T1 | $17.3M

🇸🇳

Senegal

76%

T1 | $8.7M

🇨🇻

Cape Verde

88%

T2 | $4.3M

🇲🇷

Mauritania

75%

T2 | $4.3M

🇬🇲

Gambia

68%

T2 | $4.3M

🇲🇱

Mali

62%

T3 | $4.3M

🇧🇫

Burkina Faso

61%

T3 | $4.3M

🇳🇪

Niger

62%

T3 | $4.3M

🇹🇩

Chad

64%

T3 | $4.3M

T1 (Low Risk)

T2 (Med Risk)

T3 (High Risk)

Demand Quality Score

🇳🇬 Nigeria

9.2

🇬🇭 Ghana

9.5

🇹🇬 Togo

8.8

🇧🇯 Benin

8.2

🇨🇻 Cape Verde

7.5

🇲🇱 Mali

5.5

🇹🇩 Chad

4.2

Score Components: Population density, GDP/capita, infrastructure quality, payment reliability, political stability

Marginal VaR (mVaR) Contribution by Country

mVaR measures each country's contribution to total portfolio risk. Higher = more risk concentration.

Value at Risk (VaR) Gauges

95% VaR (1-Day)

$4.2M 60% of Limit

Limit: $7.0M

99% VaR (1-Day)

$6.1M 70% of Limit

Limit: $8.7M

Drawdown Thermometer

8.2%

20% LIMIT

Current: 8.2%

Well below 20% kill-switch threshold

Warning: 15%

Triggers risk review & position check

Kill Switch: 20%

Auto-liquidate T3 + reduce PMS

What-If Scenario Controls

FX Shock (NGN/USD) 0%

-30% (Strong NGN) +30% (Weak NGN)

Oil Price ($/bbl) $80

$50 (Crash) $150 (Spike)

Dangote Output 100%

0% (Shutdown) 100% (Full)

Border Status OPEN

Scenario Impact Analysis

Landed Cost Impact

+$0.00/MT

Margin Impact

$0.0M

ROI Impact

0pp

VaR Impact

+$0.0M

Product Risk Contribution (Diesel vs PMS)

Lekki → West Africa Port Cost Breakdown

Destination	Distance	Freight $/MT	Port Fees	Total Cost	Transit Days	Risk Flag
🇹🇬Lomé, Togo	280 nm	$25	$8	$33	2-3	LOW
🇧🇯Cotonou, Benin	120 nm	$20	$6	$26	1-2	LOW
🇬🇭Tema, Ghana	450 nm	$50	$12	$62	3-4	LOW
🇨🇮Abidjan, CIV	650 nm	$70	$15	$85	4-5	MED
🇸🇳Dakar, Senegal	1,800 nm	$90	$18	$108	6-8	MED
🇲🇷Nouakchott, Mauritania	2,100 nm	$130	$22	$152	8-10	HIGH