Post-Dangote Market Evolution: Month 2 Analysis
Increased regional supply, coastal price compression
Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger tariff coordination announced
Urgent: Rebalance portfolios away from AES >25%
Baseline: Dangote FOB $687/MT | Density: 0.845 kg/L | 20,000 MT = 23.67M liters
| Country | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Change | Local $/L | Landed $/L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇻 Cape Verde | 77-99% | 82-105% | +5-6 pp | $1.28-1.45 | $0.725 | Island scarcity premium |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | 66-94% | 68-97% | +2-3 pp | $1.07-1.26 | $0.610 | Lomé hub demand strong |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 66-85% | 70-91% | +4-6 pp | $1.15-1.30 | $0.675 | Subsidy reduced |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | 60-88% | 62-90% | +2 pp | $1.02-1.20 | $0.605 | Transit corridor stable |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | 64-86% | 68-91% | +4-5 pp | $1.18-1.35 | $0.715 | Mining demand uptick |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 63-79% | 58-74% | -5 pp | $1.08-1.18 | $0.635 | Import competition |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | 60-87% | 64-92% | +4-5 pp | $1.12-1.32 | $0.695 | CFA stability |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | 63-81% | 60-78% | -3 pp | $1.10-1.22 | $0.655 | Coastal glut |
| 🇬🇲 Gambia | 55-80% | 58-84% | +3-4 pp | $1.08-1.25 | $0.685 | Stable demand |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | 55-78% | 52-72% | -3-6 pp | $0.96-1.12 | $0.595 | Supply increase |
| 🇹🇩 Chad | 49-78% | 53-84% | +4-6 pp | $1.35-1.60 | $0.865 | Landlocked premium |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | 50-74% | 48-70% | -2-4 pp | $1.22-1.42 | $0.795 | ⚠️ AES tariff risk |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | 50-74% | 47-69% | -3-5 pp | $1.27-1.47 | $0.825 | ⚠️ AES risk |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 49-72% | 51-75% | +2-3 pp | $1.17-1.38 | $0.765 | Gold mining demand |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | 53-75% | 55-78% | +2-3 pp | $1.07-1.23 | $0.695 | Bauxite growth |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | 55-76% | 57-79% | +2-3 pp | $1.10-1.25 | $0.705 | Mining recovery |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | 35-71% | 38-74% | +3 pp | $0.95-1.18 | $0.685 | USD stabilizing |
Baseline: Dangote Gantry ₦825/L ($0.555/L @ ₦1,485/$) | Density: 0.745 kg/L | 20,000 MT = 26.85M liters
January: 2-12% ROI (marginal) → February: -2% to +8% ROI (often NEGATIVE)
| Country | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Change | Local $/L | Landed $/L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 215-230% | 225-245% | +10-15 pp | $1.92-2.05 | $0.605 | ⭐ HIGHEST |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 135-148% | 140-156% | +5-8 pp | $1.52-1.62 | $0.694 | Urban demand |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | 145-160% | 150-168% | +5-8 pp | $1.54-1.65 | $0.634 | Retail demand |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | 110-140% | 115-146% | +5-6 pp | $1.33-1.50 | $0.643 | North coast |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | 125-138% | 128-143% | +3-5 pp | $1.39-1.52 | $0.623 | Urbanization |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | 108-120% | 105-116% | -3-4 pp | $1.38-1.48 | $0.723 | ⚠️ AES risk |
| 🇨🇻 Cape Verde | 95-105% | 100-112% | +5-7 pp | $1.26-1.38 | $0.654 | Island premium |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | 105-135% | 110-142% | +5-7 pp | $1.28-1.45 | $0.623 | Small market |
| 🇬🇲 Gambia | 100-128% | 104-134% | +4-6 pp | $1.23-1.40 | $0.614 | Stable |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 90-100% | 87-97% | -3 pp | $1.12-1.22 | $0.564 | Import pressure |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | 85-92% | 88-96% | +3-4 pp | $1.06-1.14 | $0.541 | Transit hub |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | 88-96% | 91-100% | +3-4 pp | $1.08-1.17 | $0.536 | CFA stability |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | 83-97% | 80-93% | -3-4 pp | $1.10-1.20 | $0.586 | Competition |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | 108-138% | 102-130% | -6-8 pp | $1.42-1.58 | $0.754 | ⚠️ AES tariff |
| 🇹🇩 Chad | 118-155% | 124-164% | +6-9 pp | $1.54-1.75 | $0.794 | ⭐ Highest $/L |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | 2-12% | -2-8% | -4 pp | $0.54-0.62 | $0.546 | ⚠️ LOSS-MAKING |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | 90-118% | 93-123% | +3-5 pp | $1.17-1.35 | $0.614 | USD economy |
Audit portfolio for Mali, Burkina, Niger weighting
Stop all Nigeria PMS export planning
Prioritize margin gainers
60-70% portfolio in CFA Franc markets
Shift toward high-margin PMS exports
Partner for storage in key corridors
Low Risk | 100,000 MT Total
Medium Risk | 100,000 MT Total
High Risk | 100,000 MT | 60% Diesel, 40% PMS
8-12% additional levies on Nigerian-sourced fuel expected
₦1,450/$ → ₦1,485/$ (-2.4%) → Projected ₦1,520/$ March
Indian imports still 650K MT/month via Tema
Russian imports down from 250K → <100K MT/month
PMS retail prices increased 15%, export margins jumped
Iron ore +18% YoY, Diesel demand +12%
Full Cargo Revenue Model
100,000 MT Portfolio
20,000 MT Distributed
New Dashboards Required
New Scenarios